Leicester 4–0 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Nottingham Forest

P. Daka 73'

J. Maddison 35', 25'

H. Barnes 27'

10/3/2022

Premier League · Round 9King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Leicester46%

×Draw25%

Nottingham Forest29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.20

Leicester

1.57

Nottingham Forest

1.20

Leicester creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 40 away

1.38

creates per match

1.02

1.38

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Leicester

1.38

Nottingham Forest

1.02

allows per match

Leicester

1.38

Nottingham Forest

1.77

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.12scores more

Nottingham Forest+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

71%

Leicester or Nottingham Forest

75%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

54%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

23%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

79%

Leicester 2+ goals

46%

Leicester 3+ goals

21%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

70%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

34%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

61%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.38 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Nottingham Forest attack 1.02 + Leicester defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leicester scores more

46%

level

25%

Nottingham Forest scores more

29%

Leicester at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Maddison

Leicester · M

9.5

Match Events

18'

25'

27'

33'

35'

46'

46'

R. Freuler← C. Kouyaté

46'

S. Aurier← N. Williams

46'

R. Yates← L. OBrien

62'

P. Daka← J. Vardy

62'

E. Dennis← T. Awoniyi

64'

Jesse Lingard

69'

O. Mangala← J. Lingard

71'

Boubakary Soumaré

73'

P. Daka↳ J. Maddison

80'

D. Praet← Y. Tielemans

83'

James Maddison

85'

M. Albrighton← J. Maddison

90+2'

Steve Cook

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterNottingham

Overview

52%Possession48%

17Total Shots10

6Corners6

13Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots10

7On Target3

7Off Target5

3Blocked2

10Inside Box8

7Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

492Total Passes464

416Accurate Passes362

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides4

Premier League: Leicester 4–0 Nottingham Forest

Leicester beat Nottingham Forest 4-0 in Premier League on October 3, 2022.

Goals: J. Maddison (25', 35'), H. Barnes (27'), P. Daka (73').

Leicester controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.

Leicester vs Nottingham Forest — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Leicester 4–0 Nottingham Forest