Nottingham Forest 0–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Nottingham Forest

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Huddersfield

D. Holmes 30'

12/30/2021

Championship · Round 25The City Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Nottingham Forest49%

×Draw26%

Huddersfield26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nottingham ForestExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Nottingham Forest

1.54

Huddersfield

1.04

Nottingham Forest creates 48% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 120 away

1.41

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Nottingham Forest

1.41

Huddersfield

1.07

allows per match

Nottingham Forest

1.00

Huddersfield

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nottingham Forest ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nottingham Forest or draw

74%

Nottingham Forest or Huddersfield

74%

Draw or Huddersfield

51%

Winning margin

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

25%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

79%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

45%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

20%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

65%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

28%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

66%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nottingham Forest at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nottingham Forest attack 1.41 + Huddersfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Huddersfield attack 1.07 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nottingham Forest scores more

49%

level

26%

Huddersfield scores more

26%

Nottingham Forest at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Nicholls

Huddersfield · G

8.2

Match Events

14'

Duane Holmes

15'

J. Rhodes← D. Ward

28'

Joe Worrall

30'

D. Holmes↳ H. Toffolo

67'

Cafú← B. Ojeda

68'

J. Koroma← S. Thomas

72'

L. Taylor← Xande Silva

76'

Pipa Ávila← D. Sinani

78'

Lee Nicholls

80'

João Carvalho← P. Zinckernagel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NottinghamHuddersfield

Overview

58%Possession42%

23Total Shots9

8Corners3

14Fouls4

Shots

23Total Shots9

6On Target2

10Off Target5

7Blocked2

13Inside Box2

10Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

479Total Passes361

391Accurate Passes277

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls4

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0