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Huddersfield vs Nottingham Forest — Championship 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
L. Nicholls 48' (OG)
L. Grabban 22'
9/18/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Huddersfield34%
×Draw28%
Nottingham Forest37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.13
Nottingham Forest
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 123 home / 95 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.23
Nottingham Forest
1.16

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.22
Nottingham Forest
1.03

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par
Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Nottingham Forest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
63%
Huddersfield or Nottingham Forest
72%
Draw or Nottingham Forest
66%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
14%
Nottingham Forest wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
68%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
31%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
11%
Nottingham Forest 1+ goals
70%
Nottingham Forest 2+ goals
33%
Nottingham Forest 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
48%
Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 123 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.23 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Huddersfield defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huddersfield scores more
34%
level
28%
Nottingham Forest scores more
37%

Nottingham Forest at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
B. SambaNottingham ForestNottingham Forest · G
7.5

Match Events

15'
Daniel Ward
22'
L. Grabban↳ B. Johnson
46'
O. Turton← M. Pearson
48'
L. NichollsOwn goal
58'
A. Odubeko← D. Ward
58'
D. Holmes← J. Koroma
61'
Oliver Turton
61'
A. Mighten← J. Lolley
68'
James Garner
79'
J. Richardson← D. Spence
79'
J. Colback← B. Johnson

Possession

70%Huddersfield

Shots

10Huddersfield

Pass accuracy

56%Huddersfield

Statistics

HuddersfieldNottingham
Overview
70%Possession30%
10Total Shots7
6Corners5
9Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots7
2On Target4
4Off Target1
4Blocked2
7Inside Box4
3Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
649Total Passes274
562Accurate Passes190
87%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest beat Huddersfield 2-0 in Championship on September 18, 2021.

Goals: L. Grabban (22'), L. Nicholls (48' o.g.).

Huddersfield controlled possession (70%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.