Huddersfield 1–0 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nottingham Forest

F. Campbell 54'

9/25/2020

Championship · Round 3John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Huddersfield34%

×Draw28%

Nottingham Forest37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.19

Huddersfield

1.13

Nottingham Forest

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 123 home / 95 away

1.23

creates per match

1.16

1.22

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.23

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.22

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

63%

Huddersfield or Nottingham Forest

72%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

66%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

14%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

68%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

31%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

11%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

70%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

33%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

48%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 123 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.23 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Huddersfield defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huddersfield scores more

34%

level

28%

Nottingham Forest scores more

37%

Nottingham Forest at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Koroma

Huddersfield · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

19'

29'

43'

54'

F. Campbell↳ H. Toffolo

57'

A. Mighten← S. Sow

60'

Sammy Ameobi

66'

A. Diakhaby← I. Mbenza

66'

L. Grabban← L. Taylor

73'

Richard Stearman

76'

J. Lolley← L. Freeman

81'

Scott Mckenna

81'

J. Brown← F. Campbell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldNottingham

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots14

3Corners4

12Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots14

7On Target4

5Off Target4

3Blocked6

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box9

Passing

45%Possession55%

403Total Passes471

329Accurate Passes379

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Nottingham Forest

Huddersfield beat Nottingham Forest 1-0 in Championship on September 25, 2020.

Goals: F. Campbell (54').

Nottingham Forest controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.

Huddersfield vs Nottingham Forest — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Nottingham Forest