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Norwich vs Portsmouth — Championship 2024

Norwich
Norwich
Preview
14:00
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
10/17/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Carrow Road
Big match
47%
Norwich
model favours
47%26%27%
1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Norwich47%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.52
Portsmouth
1.09

Norwich creates 39% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.49
Portsmouth
0.85

allows per match

Norwich
1.33
Portsmouth
1.56

finishing

Norwich+0.04on par
Portsmouth+0.30scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
73%
Norwich or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
53%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
24%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
78%
Norwich 2+ goals
45%
Norwich 3+ goals
20%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
66%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
30%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
63%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.33 · 32 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.49 + Portsmouth defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Portsmouth attack 0.85 + Norwich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norwich scores more
47%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
27%

Norwich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Norwich
Balanced
Portsmouth
Balanced
55%Possession48%
82%Pass accuracy72%
12.6Shots12.3
1.39xGBiggest gap1.15
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorwichPortsmouth

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Norwich
2
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
1–12–13–50–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Norwich
DWLDW
Portsmouth
LWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norwich face Portsmouth (Championship)

Championship returns with Norwich hosting Portsmouth. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Norwich host Portsmouth at Carrow Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.