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Norwich vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Norwich
Norwich
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Leicester
Leicester
T. Pukki 44' (pen)
M. Albrighton 76'
J. Vardy 8'
8/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Norwich29%
×Draw24%
Leicester47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.29
Leicester
1.69

Leicester creates 31% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 170 away

creates per match

Norwich
0.98
Leicester
1.45

allows per match

Norwich
1.93
Leicester
1.61

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
53%
Norwich or Leicester
76%
Draw or Leicester
71%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
12%
Leicester wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
72%
Norwich 2+ goals
37%
Norwich 3+ goals
14%
Leicester 1+ goals
82%
Leicester 2+ goals
50%
Leicester 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
39%
Leicester (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 0.98 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Leicester attack 1.45 + Norwich defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norwich scores more
29%
level
24%
Leicester scores more
47%

Leicester at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. VardyLeicesterLeicester · F
7.9

Match Events

8'
J. Vardy↳ Ricardo Pereira
11'
T. Castagne← Ricardo Pereira
25'
Pierre Lees Melou
42'
Pierre Lees MelouPenalty awarded
44'
T. PukkiPenalty
67'
K. Iheanacho← H. Barnes
69'
Marc Albrighton
73'
L. Rupp← P. Lees Melou
73'
J. Sargent← T. Pukki
76'
M. Albrighton↳ J. Vardy
79'
A. Idah← B. Gilmour
80'
Todd CantwellGoal cancelled
82'
Todd Cantwell
86'
K. Dewsbury-Hall← J. Maddison

Possession

44%Norwich

Shots

14Norwich

Pass accuracy

50%Norwich

Statistics

NorwichLeicester
Overview
44%Possession56%
14Total Shots9
9Corners9
8Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots9
4On Target3
6Off Target5
4Blocked1
5Inside Box7
9Outside Box2
Passing
44%Possession56%
369Total Passes471
285Accurate Passes364
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Premier League: Norwich 1–2 Leicester

Leicester beat Norwich 2-1 in Premier League on August 28, 2021.

Goals: J. Vardy (8'), T. Pukki (44' pen), M. Albrighton (76').

Leicester controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.