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Norwich vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Norwich
Norwich
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Leicester
Leicester
D. Mbokani 68'
J. Schlupp 47'
J. Vardy 28' (pen)
10/3/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Norwich29%
×Draw24%
Leicester47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.29
Leicester
1.69

Leicester creates 31% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 170 away

creates per match

Norwich
0.98
Leicester
1.45

allows per match

Norwich
1.93
Leicester
1.61

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
53%
Norwich or Leicester
76%
Draw or Leicester
71%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
12%
Leicester wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
72%
Norwich 2+ goals
37%
Norwich 3+ goals
14%
Leicester 1+ goals
82%
Leicester 2+ goals
50%
Leicester 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
39%
Leicester (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 0.98 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Leicester attack 1.45 + Norwich defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norwich scores more
29%
level
24%
Leicester scores more
47%

Leicester at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. VardyLeicesterLeicester · F
8.2

Match Events

28'
J. VardyPenalty
47'
J. Schlupp↳ N. Kanté
50'
N. Redmond← G. Dorrans
59'
D. Mbokani← M. Jarvis
63'
Robert Huth
65'
Y. Benalouane← D. Simpson
68'
D. Mbokani↳ J. Howson
70'
L. Ulloa← S. Okazaki
77'
K. Lafferty← C. Jerome
77'
A. King← J. Schlupp

Possession

66%Norwich

Shots

17Norwich

Pass accuracy

57%Norwich

Statistics

NorwichLeicester
Overview
66%Possession34%
17Total Shots16
16Corners8
0Fouls0
Shots
17Total Shots16
2On Target5
9Off Target8
6Blocked3
11Inside Box15
6Outside Box1
Passing
66%Possession34%
486Total Passes254
386Accurate Passes153
79%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
0Fouls0
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Premier League: Norwich 1–2 Leicester

Leicester beat Norwich 2-1 in Premier League on October 3, 2015.

Goals: J. Vardy (28' pen), J. Schlupp (47'), D. Mbokani (68').

Norwich controlled possession (66%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich.