Norwich 2–1 Everton: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Everton

A. Idah 18'

M. Keane 16' (OG)

Richarlison 60'

1/15/2022

Premier League · Round 22Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Norwich31%

×Draw25%

Everton45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.60

Norwich

1.29

Everton

1.60

Everton creates 24% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 178 away

1.05

creates per match

1.06

2.15

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Norwich

1.05

Everton

1.06

allows per match

Norwich

2.15

Everton

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Everton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

55%

Norwich or Everton

75%

Draw or Everton

69%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

Everton wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

72%

Norwich 2+ goals

37%

Norwich 3+ goals

14%

Everton 1+ goals

80%

Everton 2+ goals

47%

Everton 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

41%

Everton (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.15 · 41 matches

Everton away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.53 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.05 + Everton defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Everton attack 1.06 + Norwich defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Norwich scores more

31%

level

25%

Everton scores more

45%

Everton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

B. Williams

Norwich · D

7.7

Match Events

16'

M. KeaneOwn goal

18'

A. Idah↳ B. Williams

47'

Michael Keane

50'

Josh Sargent

54'

Richarlison← S. Rondón

54'

60'

66'

70'

77'

S. Byram← B. Williams

80'

D. Giannoulis← M. Aarons

87'

C. Tzolis← J. Sargent

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichEverton

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots12

8Corners8

12Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots12

3On Target5

6Off Target1

5Blocked6

6Inside Box9

8Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

284Total Passes435

200Accurate Passes346

70%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1