Everton 0–2 Norwich: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

D. Srbeny 90+2'

T. Cantwell 54'

11/23/2019

Premier League · Round 13Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Everton57%

×Draw24%

Norwich20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.90

Everton

1.72

Norwich

0.90

Everton creates 91% more chances

Season form · 179 home / 49 away

1.36

creates per match

0.55

1.25

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Everton

1.36

Norwich

0.55

allows per match

Everton

1.25

Norwich

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Everton+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Everton or draw

80%

Everton or Norwich

76%

Draw or Norwich

43%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

32%

Norwich wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

82%

Everton 2+ goals

51%

Everton 3+ goals

25%

Norwich 1+ goals

59%

Norwich 2+ goals

23%

Norwich 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

74%

Norwich (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 179 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.36 + Norwich defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.72

Norwich attack 0.55 + Everton defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Everton scores more

57%

level

24%

Norwich scores more

20%

Everton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Krul

Norwich · G

8.7

Match Events

20'

Morgan Schneiderlin

23'

Christoph Zimmermann

47'

Sam Byram

54'

T. Cantwell↳ T. Pukki

56'

A. Iwobi← M. Schneiderlin

66'

D. Calvert-Lewin← T. Walcott

66'

S. Coleman← D. Sidibé

80'

E. Buendía← T. Cantwell

81'

81'

84'

87'

88'

90'

90+1'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonNorwich

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots13

7Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots13

7On Target5

7Off Target3

4Blocked5

12Inside Box12

6Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

401Total Passes307

305Accurate Passes218

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards5