Everton 2–0 Norwich: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Norwich

A. Doucouré 77'

A. Townsend 29' (pen)

9/25/2021

Premier League · Round 6Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Everton57%

×Draw24%

Norwich20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.90

Everton

1.72

Norwich

0.90

Everton creates 91% more chances

Season form · 179 home / 49 away

1.36

creates per match

0.55

1.25

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Everton

1.36

Norwich

0.55

allows per match

Everton

1.25

Norwich

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Everton+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Everton or draw

80%

Everton or Norwich

76%

Draw or Norwich

43%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

32%

Norwich wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

82%

Everton 2+ goals

51%

Everton 3+ goals

25%

Norwich 1+ goals

59%

Norwich 2+ goals

23%

Norwich 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

74%

Norwich (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 179 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.36 + Norwich defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.72

Norwich attack 0.55 + Everton defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Everton scores more

57%

level

24%

Norwich scores more

20%

Everton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Townsend

Everton · M

7.6

Match Events

27'

AllanPenalty awarded

29'

A. TownsendPenalty

54'

Ozan Kabak

56'

Lucas Digne

69'

C. Tzolis← M. Normann

69'

M. Rashica← O. Kabak

76'

A. Gordon← A. Townsend

77'

80'

83'

84'

86'

D. Giannoulis← B. Williams

89'

L. Dobbin← A. Iwobi

90+2'

Anthony Gordon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonNorwich

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots10

6Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target2

3Off Target5

4Blocked3

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

420Total Passes487

345Accurate Passes406

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0