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Norwich vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Norwich
Norwich
Preview
19:45
Charlton
Charlton
12/29/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Carrow Road
Big match
48%
Norwich
model favours
48%25%27%

Charlton have scored in 9 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Norwich48%
×Draw25%
Charlton27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.54
Charlton
1.09

Norwich creates 41% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 21 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.52
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

Norwich
1.29
Charlton
1.55

finishing

Norwich+0.18scores more
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
73%
Norwich or Charlton
75%
Draw or Charlton
52%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
24%
Charlton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
79%
Norwich 2+ goals
45%
Norwich 3+ goals
20%
Charlton 1+ goals
66%
Charlton 2+ goals
30%
Charlton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
64%
Charlton (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 54 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Charlton attack 0.89 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Norwich scores more
48%
level
25%
Charlton scores more
27%

Norwich at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton score first in only 30% of matches
  • Norwich have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 70% of Charlton’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Norwich sit 9, Charlton 20 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Norwich
Balanced
Charlton
Direct / counter-attacking
55%Possession43%
82%Pass accuracy70%
12.4Shots10.5
1.35xGBiggest gap1.00
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorwichCharlton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4
Norwich
0
Draws
1
Charlton
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 20%
1–01–01–03–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Norwich
DWDWL
Charlton
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Norwich face Charlton (Championship)

Championship returns with Norwich hosting Charlton. Match starts December 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Norwich host Charlton at Carrow Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.