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Charlton vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Norwich
Norwich
2/10/2015ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Charlton37%
×Draw26%
Norwich37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.32
Norwich
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.39
Norwich
1.38

allows per match

Charlton
1.30
Norwich
1.26

finishing

Charlton-0.22scores less
Norwich+0.25scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
63%
Charlton or Norwich
74%
Draw or Norwich
63%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
16%
Norwich wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
73%
Charlton 2+ goals
38%
Charlton 3+ goals
15%
Norwich 1+ goals
74%
Norwich 2+ goals
39%
Norwich 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
49%
Norwich (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.30 · 6 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.39 + Norwich defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Norwich attack 1.38 + Charlton defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Charlton scores more
37%
level
26%
Norwich scores more
37%

Charlton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Charlton 2–3 Norwich

Norwich beat Charlton 3-2 in Championship on February 10, 2015.

The match was played at The Valley in London.