Norwich 0–1 Charlton: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

J. Jackson 86'

9/30/2014

Championship · Round 10Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Norwich48%

×Draw25%

Charlton27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.09

Norwich

1.54

Charlton

1.09

Norwich creates 41% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 21 away

1.52

creates per match

0.89

1.29

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Norwich

1.52

Charlton

0.89

allows per match

Norwich

1.29

Charlton

1.55

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Norwich+0.19scores more

Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

73%

Norwich or Charlton

75%

Draw or Charlton

52%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

24%

Charlton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

79%

Norwich 2+ goals

45%

Norwich 3+ goals

20%

Charlton 1+ goals

66%

Charlton 2+ goals

30%

Charlton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

64%

Charlton (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Charlton attack 0.89 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Norwich scores more

48%

level

25%

Charlton scores more

27%

Norwich at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'

F. Moussa← J. Gomez

83'

J. Howson← A. Tettey

84'

J. Loza← L. Grabban

84'

J. Murphy← W. Hoolahan

86'

J. Jackson↳ Y. Buyens

89'

K. Ahearne-Grant← F. Bulot

90+5'

M. Fox← Vetokele

Norwich

Charlton

1

26

6

16

3

▼

Gomez

17

A

Buyens

4

⚽

Jackson

2

Wilson

8

▼

Bulot

24

Cousins

14

▼

1

2

23

6

5

27

▼

Tettey

14

▼

Hoolahan

4

Johnson

22

Redmond

7

▼

Grabban

10

Jerome

83'▲J. Howson←▼A. Tettey

84'▲J. Loza←▼L. Grabban

84'▲J. Murphy←▼W. Hoolahan

Norwich substitutes

8Howson16Loza21Murphy12Hooiveld18Garrido26Rudd28O'Neil

71'▲F. Moussa←▼J. Gomez

89'▲K. Ahearne-Grant←▼F. Bulot

90+5'▲M. Fox←▼Vetokele

Charlton substitutes

10Moussa43Ahearne-Grant21Fox5Morrison11Harriott27Munns30Pope