Norwich 1–0 Charlton: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

J. Makama 61'

12/26/2025

Championship · Round 23Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Norwich49%

×Draw24%

Charlton27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.21

Norwich

1.71

Charlton

1.21

Norwich creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

1.68

creates per match

0.97

1.44

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Norwich

1.68

Charlton

0.97

allows per match

Norwich

1.44

Charlton

1.74

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Norwich+0.03on par

Charlton-0.08on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

73%

Norwich or Charlton

76%

Draw or Charlton

51%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

26%

Charlton wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

82%

Norwich 2+ goals

51%

Norwich 3+ goals

24%

Charlton 1+ goals

70%

Charlton 2+ goals

34%

Charlton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

64%

Charlton (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.44 · 21 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.74 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.68 + Charlton defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Charlton attack 0.97 + Norwich defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Norwich scores more

49%

level

24%

Charlton scores more

27%

Norwich at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Kaminski

Charlton · G

7.7

Match Events

46'

Ben Chrisene

46'

J. Wright← A. Slimane

46'

T. Springett← M. Jurasek

60'

G. Docherty← K. Anderson

60'

61'

64'

64'

65'

68'

L. Mahovo← B. Chrisene

71'

R. Apter← T. Olaofe

71'

C. Kelman← M. Leaburn

77'

Tyreece Campbell

84'

M. Kvistgaarden← J. Makama

85'

J. Stacey← O. Schwartau

85'

L. Berry← C. Coventry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichCharlton

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots5

1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.31

5Corners6

9Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots5

5On Target0

5Off Target0

4Blocked5

8Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

490Total Passes302

412Accurate Passes217

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.16Goals Prevented0.16

Discipline

9Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1