Norwich 0–3 Burnley: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Burnley

H. Ekdal 60'

Vitinho 54'

A. Zaroury 8'

2/4/2023

Championship · Round 30Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Norwich28%

×Draw25%

Burnley47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.56

Norwich

1.14

Burnley

1.56

Burnley creates 37% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

1.71

creates per match

1.79

1.33

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Norwich

1.71

Burnley

1.79

allows per match

Norwich

1.33

Burnley

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

53%

Norwich or Burnley

75%

Draw or Burnley

72%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

11%

Burnley wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

68%

Norwich 2+ goals

32%

Norwich 3+ goals

11%

Burnley 1+ goals

79%

Burnley 2+ goals

46%

Burnley 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

37%

Burnley (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.71 + Burnley defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.14

Burnley attack 1.79 + Norwich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norwich scores more

28%

level

25%

Burnley scores more

47%

Burnley at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

H. Ekdal

Burnley · D

8.2

Match Events

8'

12'

16'

29'

40'

42'

45'

54'

Vitinho← N. Tella

54'

Vitinho↳ J. Guðmundsson

60'

H. Ekdal↳ I. Maatsen

61'

M. Núñez← O. Hernández

61'

A. Idah← J. Sargent

72'

C. Tzolis← K. Dowell

73'

L. Foster← J. Guðmundsson

79'

C. Taylor← H. Ekdal

83'

Marcelino Núñez

86'

Adam Idah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichBurnley

Overview

52%Possession48%

8Total Shots13

5Corners3

15Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots13

1On Target6

3Off Target3

4Blocked4

5Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

449Total Passes429

337Accurate Passes339

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2