Burnley 2–1 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Burnley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Norwich

J. Anthony 24'

H. Mejbri 14'

J. Stacey 76'

4/11/2025

Championship · Round 42Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burnley38%

×Draw29%

Norwich33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.06

Burnley

1.15

Norwich

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.04

creates per match

1.46

0.66

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Burnley

1.04

Norwich

1.46

allows per match

Burnley

0.66

Norwich

1.26

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.39scores more

Norwich+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

67%

Burnley or Norwich

71%

Draw or Norwich

62%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

16%

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

68%

Burnley 2+ goals

32%

Burnley 3+ goals

11%

Norwich 1+ goals

65%

Norwich 2+ goals

29%

Norwich 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

53%

Norwich (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.66 · 7 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + Norwich defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Norwich attack 1.46 + Burnley defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burnley scores more

38%

level

29%

Norwich scores more

33%

Burnley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

H. Mejbri

Burnley · M

8.2

Match Events

14'

H. Mejbri↳ J. Cullen

24'

J. Anthony↳ J. Brownhill

35'

Josh Cullen

44'

M. Núñez← J. Sørensen

46'

J. Sargent← R. McConville

60'

Borja Sainz

66'

Anis Ben Slimane

67'

J. Stacey← E. Marcondes

68'

Marcus Edwards

76'

J. Stacey↳ K. McLean

77'

J. Laurent← H. Mejbri

77'

J. Sarmiento← M. Edwards

84'

E. Myles← A. Ben Slimane

84'

O. Schwartau← J. Wright

90+3'

J. Worrall← J. Anthony

90'

A. Barnes← Z. Flemming

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyNorwich

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots12

0.94Expected Goals (xG)1.39

5Corners5

14Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots12

2On Target2

4Off Target6

2Blocked4

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

417Total Passes495

352Accurate Passes433

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

-0.93Goals Prevented-0.93

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides5