Burnley 1–0 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Burnley

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

J. Rodríguez 82' (pen)

10/25/2022

Championship · Round 9Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Burnley40%

×Draw29%

Norwich30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.99

Burnley

1.19

Norwich

0.99

Burnley creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.06

creates per match

1.46

0.53

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Burnley

1.06

Norwich

1.46

allows per match

Burnley

0.53

Norwich

1.31

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.27scores more

Norwich+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

70%

Burnley or Norwich

71%

Draw or Norwich

60%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

17%

Norwich wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

70%

Burnley 2+ goals

33%

Burnley 3+ goals

12%

Norwich 1+ goals

63%

Norwich 2+ goals

26%

Norwich 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

57%

Norwich (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.53 · 6 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.31 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.06 + Norwich defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Norwich attack 1.46 + Burnley defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burnley scores more

40%

level

29%

Norwich scores more

30%

Burnley at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Guðmundsson

Burnley · M

7.7

Match Events

21'

27'

38'

58'

58'

62'

O. Hernández← T. Cantwell

64'

B. Manuel← J. Guðmundsson

72'

C. Roberts← Vitinho

73'

H. Dervişoğlu← N. Tella

74'

L. Gibbs← M. Aarons

77'

Jack Cork

82'

J. RodríguezPenalty

85'

J. Hugill← M. Núñez

87'

C. Taylor← J. Rodríguez

88'

S. Bastien← A. Zaroury

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyNorwich

Overview

61%Possession39%

17Total Shots5

5Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots5

2On Target2

8Off Target2

7Blocked1

11Inside Box4

6Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

493Total Passes317

416Accurate Passes229

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1