Norwich 0–2 Burnley: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Burnley

B. Godfrey 80' (OG)

C. Wood 45+5'

7/18/2020

Premier League · Round 37Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Norwich35%

×Draw25%

Burnley40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.44

Norwich

1.33

Burnley

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 156 away

0.98

creates per match

0.96

1.93

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Norwich

0.98

Burnley

0.96

allows per match

Norwich

1.93

Burnley

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

60%

Norwich or Burnley

75%

Draw or Burnley

65%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

15%

Burnley wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

74%

Norwich 2+ goals

38%

Norwich 3+ goals

15%

Burnley 1+ goals

76%

Burnley 2+ goals

42%

Burnley 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

47%

Burnley (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 0.98 + Burnley defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.33

Burnley attack 0.96 + Norwich defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Norwich scores more

35%

level

25%

Burnley scores more

40%

Burnley at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Westwood

Burnley · M

8.1

Match Events

35'

Emiliano Buendía

45'

Josip Drmić

45+5'

C. Wood↳ J. Guðmundsson

46'

C. Zimmermann← T. Klose

60'

R. Brady← J. Guðmundsson

76'

L. Rupp← T. Cantwell

79'

M. Vydra← C. Wood

80'

B. GodfreyOwn goal

86'

A. Idah← O. Hernández

90+3'

M. Vrančić← A. Tettey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichBurnley

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots23

6Corners8

9Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots23

2On Target8

2Off Target7

2Blocked8

5Inside Box14

1Outside Box9

Passing

42%Possession58%

354Total Passes468

267Accurate Passes404

75%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Red Cards0

1Offsides1