Norwich 1–3 Brentford: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Brentford

T. Pukki 90+2'

I. Toney 58' (pen), 52' (pen), 32'

3/5/2022

Premier League · Round 28Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Norwich29%

×Draw24%

Brentford47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.71

Norwich

1.31

Brentford

1.71

Brentford creates 31% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 76 away

1.05

creates per match

1.26

2.15

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Norwich

1.05

Brentford

1.26

allows per match

Norwich

2.15

Brentford

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

53%

Norwich or Brentford

76%

Draw or Brentford

71%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

Brentford wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

73%

Norwich 2+ goals

38%

Norwich 3+ goals

14%

Brentford 1+ goals

82%

Brentford 2+ goals

51%

Brentford 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

39%

Brentford (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.15 · 41 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.05 + Brentford defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Brentford attack 1.26 + Norwich defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Norwich scores more

29%

level

24%

Brentford scores more

47%

Brentford at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

I. Toney

Brentford · F

9.3

Match Events

24'

Kristoffer Ajer

32'

I. Toney↳ K. Ajer

40'

Christian Eriksen

50'

Pontus JanssonPenalty awarded

51'

Ben Gibson

52'

I. ToneyPenalty

58'

I. ToneyPenalty

59'

F. Onyeka← C. Nørgaard

68'

Teemu PukkiGoal cancelled

74'

J. Rowe← B. Gilmour

75'

M. Rasmussen← K. Ajer

77'

Bryan MbeumoGoal cancelled

79'

Grant Hanley

79'

Pontus Jansson

81'

M. Aarons← B. Williams

81'

P. Lees Melou← M. Normann

82'

Y. Wissa← Sergi Canós

89'

Mads Roerslev Rasmussen

90'

Bryan Mbeumo

90+2'

T. Pukki↳ J. Rowe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichBrentford

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots10

5Corners5

13Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots10

7On Target6

3Off Target1

5Blocked3

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

457Total Passes308

352Accurate Passes215

77%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls18

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides3