Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brentford vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Brentford
Brentford
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
I. Toney 27'
K. McLean 87'
10/27/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Brentford48%
×Draw25%
Norwich27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brentford
1.61
Norwich
1.15

Brentford creates 40% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 138 away

creates per match

Brentford
1.93
Norwich
1.43

allows per match

Brentford
0.87
Norwich
1.30

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brentford or draw
73%
Brentford or Norwich
75%
Draw or Norwich
52%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+
25%
Norwich wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals
80%
Brentford 2+ goals
48%
Brentford 3+ goals
22%
Norwich 1+ goals
68%
Norwich 2+ goals
32%
Norwich 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)
64%
Norwich (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.93 + Norwich defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Norwich attack 1.43 + Brentford defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brentford scores more
48%
level
25%
Norwich scores more
27%

Brentford at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
E. BuendíaNorwichNorwich · M
8.2

Match Events

27'
I. Toney↳ B. Mbeumo
46'
P. Płacheta← T. Cantwell
59'
Sergi Canós← S. Ghoddos
69'
J. Hugill← L. Rupp
69'
K. McLean← O. Skipp
70'
V. Janelt← J. Dasilva
78'
Ben Gibson
80'
Vitaly Janelt
83'
M. Forss← I. Toney
87'
K. McLean↳ E. Buendía

Possession

43%Brentford

Shots

13Brentford

Pass accuracy

49%Brentford

Statistics

BrentfordNorwich
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots14
3Corners3
19Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots14
5On Target3
6Off Target5
2Blocked6
8Inside Box10
5Outside Box4
Passing
43%Possession57%
405Total Passes526
321Accurate Passes434
79%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
19Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1

Championship: Brentford 1–1 Norwich

Brentford and Norwich drew 1-1 in Championship on October 27, 2020.

Goals: I. Toney (27'), K. McLean (87').

Norwich controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Brentford Community Stadium in Brentford, Middlesex.