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Brentford vs Norwich — Premier League 2026

Brentford
Brentford
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Norwich
Norwich
R. Henry 60'
T. Pukki 29' (pen)
M. Normann 6'
11/6/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Brentford60%
×Draw22%
Norwich18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brentford
1.88
Norwich
0.91

Brentford creates 107% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 49 away

creates per match

Brentford
1.68
Norwich
0.55

allows per match

Brentford
1.26
Norwich
2.08

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brentford or draw
82%
Brentford or Norwich
78%
Draw or Norwich
40%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+
35%
Norwich wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals
85%
Brentford 2+ goals
56%
Brentford 3+ goals
29%
Norwich 1+ goals
60%
Norwich 2+ goals
23%
Norwich 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)
77%
Norwich (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.68 + Norwich defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.88

Norwich attack 0.55 + Brentford defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Brentford scores more
60%
level
22%
Norwich scores more
18%

Brentford at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
E. PinnockBrentfordBrentford · D
7.9

Match Events

4'
Ivan Toney
6'
M. Normann
12'
C. Goode← M. Jørgensen
28'
Charlie Goode
29'
T. PukkiPenalty
32'
Mathias Normann
46'
S. Ghoddos← V. Janelt
50'
Bryan MbeumoGoal cancelled
52'
Andrew Omobamidele
60'
R. Henry↳ S. Ghoddos
69'
M. Forss← R. Henry
74'
D. Giannoulis← K. Dowell
78'
J. Sargent← T. Pukki
90'
Max Aarons
90+5'
A. Idah← M. Rashica

Possession

65%Brentford

Shots

19Brentford

Pass accuracy

54%Brentford

Statistics

BrentfordNorwich
Overview
65%Possession35%
19Total Shots9
6Corners2
12Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots9
7On Target5
5Off Target3
7Blocked1
17Inside Box4
2Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
559Total Passes313
435Accurate Passes211
78%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Premier League: Brentford 1–2 Norwich

Norwich beat Brentford 2-1 in Premier League on November 6, 2021.

Goals: M. Normann (6'), T. Pukki (29' pen), R. Henry (60').

Brentford controlled possession (65%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Brentford Community Stadium in Brentford, Middlesex.