Norwich 2–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

M. Toure 78'

A. Slimane 73'

2/7/2026

Championship · Round 31Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Norwich42%

×Draw26%

Blackburn32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

Norwich

1.44

Blackburn

1.23

Norwich creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 19 away

1.49

creates per match

1.14

1.33

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Norwich

1.49

Blackburn

1.14

allows per match

Norwich

1.33

Blackburn

1.40

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Norwich+0.04on par

Blackburn+0.07on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

68%

Norwich or Blackburn

74%

Draw or Blackburn

58%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

20%

Blackburn wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

76%

Norwich 2+ goals

42%

Norwich 3+ goals

18%

Blackburn 1+ goals

71%

Blackburn 2+ goals

35%

Blackburn 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

57%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.33 · 32 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.49 + Blackburn defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Blackburn attack 1.14 + Norwich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Norwich scores more

42%

level

26%

Blackburn scores more

32%

Norwich at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

R. McConville

Norwich · D

7.9

Match Events

51'

M. Toure← J. Makama

62'

S. Field← J. Wright

62'

O. Schwartau← T. Springett

65'

O. Afolayan← R. Morishita

66'

C. O'Riordan← H. Carter

73'

A. Slimane

74'

Anis Ben Slimane

76'

A. Gudjohnsen← L. Miller

77'

J. Stacey← A. Ahmed

77'

M. Kvistgaarden← A. Slimane

78'

M. Toure

83'

Sam Field

85'

M. Jorgensen← Y. Ohashi

88'

Todd Cantwell

88'

Eiran Cashin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichBlackburn

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots6

1.50Expected Goals (xG)0.26

5Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots6

3On Target0

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

441Total Passes351

349Accurate Passes271

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

-0.56Goals Prevented-0.56

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2