Blackburn 1–1 Norwich: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Norwich

D. Hyam 56'

M. Núñez 22'

2/24/2024

Championship · Round 34Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Blackburn39%

×Draw28%

Norwich33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.12

Blackburn

1.25

Norwich

1.12

Blackburn creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

1.22

creates per match

1.30

0.94

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Blackburn

1.22

Norwich

1.30

allows per match

Blackburn

0.94

Norwich

1.28

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.22scores less

Norwich+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

67%

Blackburn or Norwich

72%

Draw or Norwich

61%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

17%

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

71%

Blackburn 2+ goals

36%

Blackburn 3+ goals

13%

Norwich 1+ goals

67%

Norwich 2+ goals

31%

Norwich 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

54%

Norwich (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.94 · 19 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.22 + Norwich defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Norwich attack 1.30 + Blackburn defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackburn scores more

39%

level

28%

Norwich scores more

33%

Blackburn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

H. Pickering

Blackburn · D

7.5

Match Events

14'

Tyrhys Dolan

15'

H. Pickering← R. Hedges

22'

M. Núñez

56'

D. Hyam↳ H. Pickering

63'

O. Hernández← Borja Sainz

75'

A. Moran← J. Buckley

75'

A. Barnes← M. Núñez

79'

Christian Fassnacht

85'

A. Sigurðsson← T. Dolan

85'

S. McCallum← D. Giannoulis

85'

L. Gibbs← C. Fassnacht

85'

J. Sørensen← G. Hanley

90+4'

Scott Wharton

90+4'

Ben Gibson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnNorwich

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots7

1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.67

6Corners6

14Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots7

5On Target3

3Off Target2

2Blocked2

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

396Total Passes556

283Accurate Passes446

71%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4