Blackburn 1–1 Norwich: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

A. Weimann 90+6'

A. Crnac 90'

3/1/2025

Championship · Round 35Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Blackburn39%

×Draw28%

Norwich33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.13

Blackburn

1.26

Norwich

1.13

Blackburn creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

1.23

creates per match

1.31

0.95

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Blackburn

1.23

Norwich

1.31

allows per match

Blackburn

0.95

Norwich

1.29

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.23scores less

Norwich+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

67%

Blackburn or Norwich

72%

Draw or Norwich

61%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

17%

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

72%

Blackburn 2+ goals

36%

Blackburn 3+ goals

13%

Norwich 1+ goals

68%

Norwich 2+ goals

31%

Norwich 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

54%

Norwich (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.95 · 18 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.23 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Norwich attack 1.31 + Blackburn defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackburn scores more

39%

level

28%

Norwich scores more

33%

Blackburn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Yuri Ribeiro

Blackburn · D

7.6

Match Events

22'

Kellen Fisher

35'

A. Crnac← L. Dobbin

61'

S. Tronstad← A. Forshaw

61'

A. Weimann← T. Cantwell

62'

67'

74'

76'

85'

85'

88'

88'

E. Marcondes← B. Chrisene

88'

J. Wright← A. Ben Slimane

90'

A. Crnac↳ E. Marcondes

90+6'

A. Weimann↳ Yuri Ribeiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnNorwich

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots11

1.06Expected Goals (xG)0.56

5Corners2

15Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots11

1On Target3

6Off Target3

3Blocked5

9Inside Box4

1Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

319Total Passes519

246Accurate Passes453

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

-0.39Goals Prevented-0.39

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2