Norwich 0–5 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Arsenal

E. Smith Rowe 90+1'

A. Lacazette 84' (pen)

B. Saka 67', 6'

K. Tierney 44'

12/26/2021

Premier League · Round 19Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Norwich23%

×Draw22%

Arsenal55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.90

Norwich

1.14

Arsenal

1.90

Arsenal creates 67% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 186 away

1.05

creates per match

1.64

2.15

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Norwich

1.05

Arsenal

1.64

allows per match

Norwich

2.15

Arsenal

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norwich+0.00on par

Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

45%

Norwich or Arsenal

78%

Draw or Arsenal

77%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

9%

Arsenal wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

68%

Norwich 2+ goals

32%

Norwich 3+ goals

11%

Arsenal 1+ goals

85%

Arsenal 2+ goals

56%

Arsenal 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

29%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.15 · 41 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.22 · 186 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.05 + Arsenal defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Arsenal attack 1.64 + Norwich defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Norwich scores more

23%

level

22%

Arsenal scores more

55%

Arsenal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

B. Saka

Arsenal · M

9.0

Match Events

6'

B. Saka↳ M. Ødegaard

39'

Granit Xhaka

41'

Przemysław Płacheta

44'

K. Tierney↳ M. Ødegaard

62'

Thomas Partey

66'

P. Lees Melou← K. Dowell

67'

B. Saka↳ A. Lacazette

72'

A. Idah← J. Sargent

75'

C. Tzolis← P. Płacheta

75'

Mohamed Elneny← T. Partey

78'

N. Pépé← B. Saka

82'

E. Smith Rowe← Gabriel Martinelli

84'

A. LacazettePenalty

90+2'

Emile Smith RoweGoal confirmed

90+1'

E. Smith Rowe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichArsenal

Overview

35%Possession65%

4Total Shots16

3Corners4

13Fouls7

Shots

4Total Shots16

2On Target6

1Off Target4

1Blocked6

3Inside Box11

1Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

314Total Passes585

228Accurate Passes493

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2