Arsenal 4–0 Norwich: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Norwich

Cédric Soares 81'

P. Aubameyang 67', 33'

G. Xhaka 37'

7/1/2020

Premier League · Round 32Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Arsenal68%

×Draw20%

Norwich12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.74

Arsenal

2.07

Norwich

0.74

Arsenal creates 180% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 49 away

2.06

creates per match

0.55

0.93

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Arsenal

2.06

Norwich

0.55

allows per match

Arsenal

0.93

Norwich

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

88%

Arsenal or Norwich

80%

Draw or Norwich

32%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

43%

Norwich wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

87%

Arsenal 2+ goals

61%

Arsenal 3+ goals

34%

Norwich 1+ goals

52%

Norwich 2+ goals

17%

Norwich 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

85%

Norwich (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.93 · 190 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.06 + Norwich defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.07

Norwich attack 0.55 + Arsenal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Arsenal scores more

68%

level

20%

Norwich scores more

12%

Arsenal at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

P. Aubameyang

Arsenal · F

9.2

Match Events

27'

Kenny McLean

31'

Lukas Rupp

33'

P. Aubameyang

37'

G. Xhaka↳ P. Aubameyang

46'

R. Holding← S. Mustafi

46'

O. Hernández← E. Buendía

46'

J. Drmic← T. Pukki

46'

A. Idah← T. Trybull

58'

J. Willock← R. Nelson

63'

Emiliano Martínez

67'

P. Aubameyang

75'

M. Stiepermann← T. Cantwell

75'

M. Vrančić← L. Rupp

76'

E. Nketiah← A. Lacazette

77'

Cédric Soares← Bellerín

81'

Cédric Soares

82'

N. Pépé← P. Aubameyang

86'

Mario Vrančić

90'

Marco Stiepermann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalNorwich

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots8

6Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots8

8On Target2

4Off Target3

1Blocked3

8Inside Box0

5Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

468Total Passes445

400Accurate Passes354

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2