Arsenal 1–0 Norwich: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

P. Aubameyang 66'

9/11/2021

Premier League · Round 4Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Arsenal68%

×Draw20%

Norwich12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.74

Arsenal

2.07

Norwich

0.74

Arsenal creates 180% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 49 away

2.06

creates per match

0.55

0.93

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Arsenal

2.06

Norwich

0.55

allows per match

Arsenal

0.93

Norwich

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

88%

Arsenal or Norwich

80%

Draw or Norwich

32%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

43%

Norwich wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

87%

Arsenal 2+ goals

61%

Arsenal 3+ goals

34%

Norwich 1+ goals

52%

Norwich 2+ goals

17%

Norwich 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

85%

Norwich (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.93 · 190 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.06 + Norwich defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.07

Norwich attack 0.55 + Arsenal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Arsenal scores more

68%

level

20%

Norwich scores more

12%

Arsenal at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

N. Pépé

Arsenal · M

8.0

Match Events

42'

Max Aarons

48'

Grant Hanley

62'

E. Smith Rowe← T. Tomiyasu

62'

T. Partey← A. Lokonga

62'

T. Cantwell← K. Dowell

66'

P. Aubameyang↳ N. Pépé

68'

M. Rashica← C. Tzolis

80'

A. Idah← L. Rupp

82'

Cédric Soares← A. Maitland-Niles

88'

Ben White

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalNorwich

Overview

52%Possession48%

30Total Shots10

8Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

30Total Shots10

7On Target1

13Off Target3

10Blocked6

21Inside Box5

9Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

437Total Passes408

365Accurate Passes320

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0