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Northern Tigers vs Bulls Academy — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers
FT
0 – 2
Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
3/23/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 7North Turramurra Recreation Area

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Northern Tigers46%
×Draw23%
Bulls Academy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Tigers
1.77
Bulls Academy
1.42

Northern Tigers creates 25% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 43 away

creates per match

Northern Tigers
2.05
Bulls Academy
1.70

allows per match

Northern Tigers
1.14
Bulls Academy
1.49

finishing

Northern Tigers+0.00on par
Bulls Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Tigers ↓

Bulls Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Northern Tigers or draw
69%
Northern Tigers or Bulls Academy
77%
Draw or Bulls Academy
54%

Winning margin

Northern Tigers wins by 2+
25%
Bulls Academy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Northern Tigers 1+ goals
83%
Northern Tigers 2+ goals
53%
Northern Tigers 3+ goals
26%
Bulls Academy 1+ goals
76%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
41%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Northern Tigers (draw refunded)
60%
Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Tigers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Bulls Academy away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Tigers attack 2.05 + Bulls Academy defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bulls Academy attack 1.70 + Northern Tigers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northern Tigers scores more
46%
level
23%
Bulls Academy scores more
31%

Northern Tigers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northern Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northern Tigers vs Bulls Academy

Bulls Academy beat Northern Tigers 2-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at North Turramurra Recreation Area in Sydney.