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Bulls Academy vs Northern Tigers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers
5/24/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 16Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bulls Academy43%
×Draw23%
Northern Tigers34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulls Academy
1.82
Northern Tigers
1.59

Bulls Academy creates 14% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 77 away

creates per match

Bulls Academy
2.23
Northern Tigers
1.73

allows per match

Bulls Academy
1.45
Northern Tigers
1.42

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par
Northern Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Northern Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw
66%
Bulls Academy or Northern Tigers
77%
Draw or Northern Tigers
57%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+
23%
Northern Tigers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals
84%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
54%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
27%
Northern Tigers 1+ goals
80%
Northern Tigers 2+ goals
47%
Northern Tigers 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
56%
Northern Tigers (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Northern Tigers away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 2.23 + Northern Tigers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.82

Northern Tigers attack 1.73 + Bulls Academy defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bulls Academy scores more
43%
level
23%
Northern Tigers scores more
34%

Bulls Academy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bulls Academy 1–1 Northern Tigers

Bulls Academy and Northern Tigers drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.