Bulls Academy 2–1 Northern Tigers: Result & Stats

Bulls Academy

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Northern Tigers

6/29/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 22Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Bulls Academy42%

×Draw23%

Northern Tigers36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulls AcademyExpected goals in this matchNorthern Tigers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.64

Bulls Academy

1.79

Northern Tigers

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 77 away

2.17

creates per match

1.73

1.54

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Bulls Academy

2.17

Northern Tigers

1.73

allows per match

Bulls Academy

1.54

Northern Tigers

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par

Northern Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Northern Tigers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw

64%

Bulls Academy or Northern Tigers

77%

Draw or Northern Tigers

58%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+

22%

Northern Tigers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals

83%

Bulls Academy 2+ goals

53%

Bulls Academy 3+ goals

26%

Northern Tigers 1+ goals

81%

Northern Tigers 2+ goals

49%

Northern Tigers 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)

54%

Northern Tigers (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.54 · 41 matches

Northern Tigers away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 2.17 + Northern Tigers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.79

Northern Tigers attack 1.73 + Bulls Academy defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bulls Academy scores more

42%

level

23%

Northern Tigers scores more

36%

Bulls Academy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff