Northampton 1–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Port Vale

B. Ashley-Seal 23'

8/7/2021

League Two · Round 1Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton42%

×Draw28%

Port Vale30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Northampton

1.27

Port Vale

1.02

Northampton creates 25% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 118 away

1.38

creates per match

1.16

0.88

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Northampton

1.38

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Northampton

0.88

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

70%

Northampton or Port Vale

72%

Draw or Port Vale

58%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

19%

Port Vale wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

72%

Northampton 2+ goals

36%

Northampton 3+ goals

14%

Port Vale 1+ goals

64%

Port Vale 2+ goals

27%

Port Vale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

59%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.38 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Northampton defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more

42%

level

28%

Port Vale scores more

30%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Guthrie

Northampton · D

7.5

Match Events

23'

B. Ashley-Seal↳ N. Kabamba

27'

Ryan Johnson

53'

D. Rose← B. Ashley-Seal

55'

Lucas Covolan

56'

A. Stone← R. Johnson

69'

S. McWilliams← J. Flores

71'

Jon Guthrie

74'

Aaron McGowan

75'

A. Hurst← B. Walker

75'

J. Proctor← J. Wilson

77'

Dylan Connolly

78'

Danny Rose

80'

A. Koiki← D. Connolly

81'

Aaron Martin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonPort

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots9

4Corners2

10Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots9

2On Target2

3Off Target4

4Blocked3

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

340Total Passes330

209Accurate Passes183

61%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1