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Northampton vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
2/8/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 32PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton42%
×Draw28%
Port Vale30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.27
Port Vale
1.02

Northampton creates 25% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 118 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.38
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Northampton
0.88
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
70%
Northampton or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
58%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
19%
Port Vale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
72%
Northampton 2+ goals
36%
Northampton 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
64%
Port Vale 2+ goals
27%
Port Vale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
59%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.38 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Northampton defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more
42%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
30%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Northampton 0–1 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Northampton 1-0 in League Two on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at PTS Academy Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.