Northampton 0–2 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Peterborough

R. Brown 80'

N. Thompson 33'

10/10/2020

League One · Round 5PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Northampton40%

×Draw24%

Peterborough36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.46

Northampton

1.55

Peterborough

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.19

creates per match

1.24

1.69

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Northampton

1.19

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Northampton

1.69

Peterborough

1.92

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.08on par

Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

64%

Northampton or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

60%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

20%

Peterborough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

79%

Northampton 2+ goals

46%

Northampton 3+ goals

20%

Peterborough 1+ goals

77%

Peterborough 2+ goals

43%

Peterborough 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

53%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.19 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Northampton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Northampton scores more

40%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

36%

Northampton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

N. Thompson

Peterborough · D

7.9

Match Events

33'

N. Thompson↳ S. Dembélé

46'

R. Watson← C. Missilou

51'

Sam Hoskins

57'

B. Ashley-Seal← H. Smith

68'

R. Korboa← J. Mills

73'

Ricky Korboa

78'

R. Broom← S. Szmodics

80'

R. Brown↳ J. Ward

85'

Ryan Watson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonPeterborough

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots14

1Corners8

15Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots14

2On Target8

5Off Target3

3Blocked3

3Inside Box8

7Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

239Total Passes352

128Accurate Passes231

54%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards0