Northampton 1–0 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mansfield Town

S. Hoskins 28' (pen)

3/14/2023

League Two · Round 28Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton42%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.07

Northampton

1.32

Mansfield Town

1.07

Northampton creates 23% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 141 away

1.48

creates per match

1.25

0.89

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

70%

Northampton or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

58%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

19%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

73%

Northampton 2+ goals

38%

Northampton 3+ goals

15%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

66%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

29%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

58%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more

42%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

30%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Leonard

Northampton · M

7.7

Match Events

4'

Kieran Wallace

27'

Christy Pym

28'

H. Boateng← K. Wallace

28'

S. HoskinsPenalty

59'

K. Bowie← L. Appéré

64'

S. McLaughlin← D. Keillor-Dunn

65'

66'

66'

77'

83'

D. Wright-Phillips← J. Sowerby

83'

J. Law← S. McLaughlin

88'

Jason Law

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonMansfield

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots9

6Corners1

9Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots9

4On Target2

6Off Target6

4Blocked1

11Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

399Total Passes383

262Accurate Passes238

66%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1