Mansfield Town 0–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Northampton

C. McGeehan 55'

2/7/2025

League One · Round 31One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Mansfield Town56%

×Draw21%

Northampton24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.34

Mansfield Town

2.15

Northampton

1.34

Mansfield Town creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.77

creates per match

0.85

1.84

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.77

Northampton

0.85

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.84

Northampton

2.52

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par

Northampton-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

76%

Mansfield Town or Northampton

79%

Draw or Northampton

44%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

34%

Northampton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

88%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

63%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

36%

Northampton 1+ goals

74%

Northampton 2+ goals

39%

Northampton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

70%

Northampton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Northampton defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.15

Northampton attack 0.85 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

56%

level

21%

Northampton scores more

24%

Mansfield Town at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Flint

Mansfield Town · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

Sam HoskinsMissed penalty

28'

Aaron Lewis

33'

J. Rhodes← L. Gregory

49'

Jordan Rhodes

55'

C. McGeehan↳ M. Pinnock

73'

73'

74'

81'

84'

B. Perry← T. Fosu

85'

Hiram Boateng

90+2'

Ben Perry

90+6'

T. Magloire← S. Hoskins

90+1'

J. Baldwin← T. Eaves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldNorthampton

Overview

57%Possession43%

20Total Shots10

4Corners3

14Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots10

5On Target5

9Off Target2

6Blocked3

15Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

362Total Passes286

238Accurate Passes162

66%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2