Mansfield Town 4–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Northampton

L. Akins 90', 62'

W. Evans 48', 5'

C. McGeehan 73'

3/21/2026

League One · Round 39One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Mansfield Town56%

×Draw21%

Northampton24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.34

Mansfield Town

2.15

Northampton

1.34

Mansfield Town creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.77

creates per match

0.85

1.84

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.77

Northampton

0.85

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.84

Northampton

2.52

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par

Northampton-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

76%

Mansfield Town or Northampton

79%

Draw or Northampton

44%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

34%

Northampton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

88%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

63%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

36%

Northampton 1+ goals

74%

Northampton 2+ goals

39%

Northampton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

70%

Northampton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Northampton defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.15

Northampton attack 0.85 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

56%

level

21%

Northampton scores more

24%

Mansfield Town at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Akins

Mansfield Town · M

9.9

Match Events

5'

11'

24'

34'

46'

46'

R. Sweeney← F. Blake-Tracy

46'

N. Guinness-Walker← J. Guthrie

46'

46'

48'

57'

62'

71'

71'

D. Campbell← T. Taylor

73'

C. McGeehan↳ K. McAdam

76'

K. Swyer← J. Vale

78'

O. Irow← R. Oates

86'

A. Lewis← R. Hendry

86'

N. Moriah-Welsh← J. Russell

90+4'

J. Gardner← G. Abbott

90'

L. Akins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldNorthampton

Overview

42%Possession58%

17Total Shots11

3Corners3

14Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots11

9On Target4

6Off Target5

2Blocked2

12Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

307Total Passes443

203Accurate Passes324

66%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

League One: Mansfield Town 4–1 Northampton

Mansfield Town beat Northampton 4-1 in League One on March 21, 2026.

Goals: W. Evans (5', 48'), L. Akins (62', 90'), C. McGeehan (73').

Northampton controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield.

Mansfield Town vs Northampton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Mansfield Town 4–1 Northampton