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Northampton vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Townadvanced
S. McLaughlin 32'
5/18/2022League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsSixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton42%
×Draw27%
Mansfield Town30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.32
Mansfield Town
1.07

Northampton creates 23% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 141 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Mansfield Town
1.25

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Mansfield Town
1.16

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
70%
Northampton or Mansfield Town
73%
Draw or Mansfield Town
58%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
19%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
73%
Northampton 2+ goals
38%
Northampton 3+ goals
15%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
66%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
29%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
58%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more
42%
level
27%
Mansfield Town scores more
30%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
E. HewittMansfield TownMansfield Town · D
7.7

Match Events

32'
S. McLaughlin↳ E. Hewitt
53'
John-Joe O'Toole
63'
Kieran Wallace
65'
D. Rose← J. Mills
68'
C. Zimba← J. Eppiah
82'
G. Lapslie← S. Quinn
85'
O. Clarke← K. Wallace
87'
Mitchell Pinnock
90+2'
Fraser Horsfall

Possession

62%Northampton

Shots

14Northampton

Pass accuracy

58%Northampton

Statistics

NorthamptonMansfield
Overview
62%Possession38%
14Total Shots6
9Corners2
8Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots6
1On Target1
4Off Target2
9Blocked3
7Inside Box6
7Outside Box0
Passing
62%Possession38%
406Total Passes256
271Accurate Passes122
67%Pass Accuracy48%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

League Two: Northampton 0–1 Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town beat Northampton 1-0 in League Two on May 18, 2022.

Goals: S. McLaughlin (32').

Northampton controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.