Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Northampton vs Luton — League One 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luton
Luton
L. Fanne 77'
10/25/2025League OneLeague One · Round 14Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Northampton31%
×Draw22%
Luton46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.52
Luton
1.88

Luton creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.35
Luton
1.87

allows per match

Northampton
1.89
Luton
1.69

finishing

Northampton-0.18scores less
Luton-0.09on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
54%
Northampton or Luton
78%
Draw or Luton
69%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
15%
Luton wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
78%
Northampton 2+ goals
45%
Northampton 3+ goals
20%
Luton 1+ goals
85%
Luton 2+ goals
56%
Luton 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
41%
Luton (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Luton away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.35 + Luton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Luton attack 1.87 + Northampton defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northampton scores more
31%
level
22%
Luton scores more
46%

Luton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
R. FitzsimonsNorthamptonNorthampton · G
8.3

Match Events

13'
Jack Perkins
26'
K. Edwards← J. Wormleighton
40'
Lamine Dabo
45+1'
Kamarai Swyer
52'
Kal Naismith
60'
J. Yates← J. Clark
67'
J. Willis← J. Perkins
67'
E. Wheatley← K. Swyer
73'
I. Jones← G. Kodua
77'
L. Fanne↳ I. Jones
87'
M. Andersen← J. Richards
87'
H. Odoffin← N. Lonwijk

Possession

46%Northampton

Shots

10Northampton

Pass accuracy

45%Northampton

Statistics

NorthamptonLuton
Overview
46%Possession54%
10Total Shots15
6Corners10
10Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots15
5On Target4
0Off Target5
5Blocked6
6Inside Box9
4Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
230Total Passes278
138Accurate Passes205
60%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Northampton vs Luton

Luton beat Northampton 1-0 in League One on October 25, 2025.

Goals: L. Fanne (77').

Luton controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton.