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Northampton vs Luton — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Northampton
Northampton
CANC
12:00
Luton
Luton
7/16/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Northampton5%
×Draw17%
Luton78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
0.36
Luton
2.06

Luton creates 472% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Northampton
0.33
Luton
3.80

allows per match

Northampton
0.33
Luton
0.40

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–118%
0–219%
0–313%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (19%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
22%
Northampton or Luton
83%
Draw or Luton
95%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
1%
Luton wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
30%
Northampton 2+ goals
5%
Northampton 3+ goals
1%
Luton 1+ goals
87%
Luton 2+ goals
61%
Luton 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
6%
Luton (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Luton away — creates 3.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 0.33 + Luton defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.36

Luton attack 3.80 + Northampton defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Northampton scores more
5%
level
17%
Luton scores more
78%

Luton at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northampton vs Luton — Match Preview

Northampton face Luton on July 16, 2022 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Northampton host Luton at Sixfields Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.