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Luton vs Northampton — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Northampton
Northampton
K. Naismith 85'
L. Walsh 43'
S. Hoskins 31'
4/15/2026League OneLeague One · Round 43Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Luton60%
×Draw22%
Northampton18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.92
Northampton
0.94

Luton creates 104% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 99 away

creates per match

Luton
2.04
Northampton
0.94

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Northampton
1.79

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Luton or draw
82%
Luton or Northampton
78%
Draw or Northampton
40%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
36%
Northampton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
85%
Luton 2+ goals
57%
Luton 3+ goals
30%
Northampton 1+ goals
61%
Northampton 2+ goals
24%
Northampton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
77%
Northampton (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 2.04 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.92

Northampton attack 0.94 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Luton scores more
60%
level
22%
Northampton scores more
18%

Luton at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
K. NaismithLutonLuton · D
8.5

Match Events

31'
S. Hoskins↳ T. Eaves
43'
L. Walsh↳ E. Lawrence
46'
S. Morris← J. Richards
62'
Cameron McGeehan
66'
A. Al Hamadi← N. Wells
71'
C. McCarthy← J. Burroughs
72'
K. Swyer← T. Fornah
72'
E. List← M. Jacobs
76'
Conor McCarthy
77'
Jon Guthrie
82'
D. van den Berg← J. Clark
82'
G. Kodua← E. Lawrence
82'
T. Taylor← S. Hoskins
82'
J. Evans← T. Eaves
85'
K. Naismith
90+4'
Josh Keeley
90+1'
Nigel Cello Lonwijk
90'
G. Saville← L. Walsh

Possession

59%Luton

Shots

25Luton

Pass accuracy

53%Luton

Statistics

LutonNorthampton
Overview
59%Possession41%
25Total Shots12
11Corners5
7Fouls15
Shots
25Total Shots12
5On Target3
7Off Target2
13Blocked7
16Inside Box10
9Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
442Total Passes320
368Accurate Passes235
83%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

League One: Luton 2–1 Northampton

Luton beat Northampton 2-1 in League One on April 15, 2026.

Goals: S. Hoskins (31'), L. Walsh (43'), K. Naismith (85').

Luton controlled possession (59%) and registered 25 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.