Northampton 2–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gillingham

W. Hondermarck 82'

L. Appéré 32'

A. O'Brien 63'

4/10/2023

League Two · Round 41Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton49%

×Draw27%

Gillingham24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.90

Northampton

1.42

Gillingham

0.90

Northampton creates 58% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 101 away

1.48

creates per match

0.90

0.89

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Gillingham

0.90

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Gillingham

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

76%

Northampton or Gillingham

73%

Draw or Gillingham

51%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

24%

Gillingham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

76%

Northampton 2+ goals

41%

Northampton 3+ goals

17%

Gillingham 1+ goals

59%

Gillingham 2+ goals

23%

Gillingham 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

67%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Gillingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gillingham attack 0.90 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Northampton scores more

49%

level

27%

Gillingham scores more

24%

Northampton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

W. Hondermarck

Northampton · M

7.5

Match Events

32'

L. Appéré

46'

J. Sowerby← H. Lintott

46'

L. Page← D. Jefferies

62'

A. MacDonald← C. Alexander

62'

A. O'Brien← G. Lapslie

63'

63'

71'

77'

82'

W. Hondermarck↳ S. Hoskins

88'

T. Yengi← K. Bowie

88'

T. Abrahams← W. Wright

90+1'

Ethan Coleman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonGillingham

Overview

61%Possession39%

9Total Shots5

4Corners0

10Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots5

3On Target2

5Off Target2

1Blocked1

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

431Total Passes288

303Accurate Passes168

70%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5