Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gillingham vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Northampton
Northampton
K. Bowie 71'
S. Hoskins 27'
11/12/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 18MEMS Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Gillingham36%
×Draw28%
Northampton36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.18
Northampton
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 88 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.12
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Gillingham
1.09
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
64%
Gillingham or Northampton
72%
Draw or Northampton
64%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
15%
Northampton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
69%
Gillingham 2+ goals
33%
Gillingham 3+ goals
12%
Northampton 1+ goals
69%
Northampton 2+ goals
33%
Northampton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
50%
Northampton (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.12 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Northampton attack 1.24 + Gillingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gillingham scores more
36%
level
28%
Northampton scores more
36%

Gillingham at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
S. HoskinsNorthamptonNorthampton · M
8.6

Match Events

27'
S. Hoskins
41'
J. Turner← G. Morris
46'
L. Walker← H. Adelakun
58'
Aaron McGowan
64'
A. MacDonald← S. OKeefe
65'
S. Kashket← J. Green
69'
M. Leonard← B. Fox
71'
K. Bowie↳ S. Hoskins
76'
D. Hylton← K. Bowie
80'
H. Lintott← A. McGowan
81'
B. Reeves← D. Jefferies
81'
M. Dyche← A. Odimayo
90+2'
Sam Hoskins

Possession

55%Gillingham

Shots

8Gillingham

Pass accuracy

54%Gillingham

Statistics

GillinghamNorthampton
Overview
55%Possession45%
8Total Shots11
3Corners1
15Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots11
3On Target4
4Off Target3
1Blocked4
5Inside Box9
3Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
377Total Passes305
224Accurate Passes153
59%Pass Accuracy50%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Gillingham vs Northampton

Northampton beat Gillingham 2-0 in League Two on November 12, 2022.

Goals: S. Hoskins (27'), K. Bowie (71').

Gillingham controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at MEMS Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham, Kent.