Gillingham 2–2 Northampton: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Northampton

O. Lee 68'

V. Oliver 11'

F. Horsfall 83'

R. Edmondson 79'

4/24/2021

League One · Round 44Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Gillingham44%

×Draw26%

Northampton31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.21

Gillingham

1.49

Northampton

1.21

Gillingham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 99 away

1.19

creates per match

0.94

1.48

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Northampton

0.94

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Northampton

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

69%

Gillingham or Northampton

74%

Draw or Northampton

56%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

21%

Northampton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

77%

Gillingham 2+ goals

44%

Gillingham 3+ goals

19%

Northampton 1+ goals

70%

Northampton 2+ goals

34%

Northampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

59%

Northampton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.49

Northampton attack 0.94 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gillingham scores more

44%

level

26%

Northampton scores more

31%

Gillingham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Lee

Gillingham · M

7.7

Match Events

11'

14'

32'

40'

42'

46'

D. Rose← A. Jones

55'

Bryn Morris

57'

R. Edmondson← S. McWilliams

57'

M. Marshall← M. Miller

68'

O. Lee↳ R. Jackson

71'

Dominic Samuel

75'

C. Chukwuemeka← R. Watson

79'

R. Edmondson↳ C. Chukwuemeka

83'

F. Horsfall↳ J. Mills

88'

J. Graham← O. Lee

88'

G. Sithole← D. Samuel

90'

R. McKenzie← R. Jackson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamNorthampton

Overview

48%Possession52%

18Total Shots17

4Corners9

19Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots17

8On Target6

7Off Target7

3Blocked4

13Inside Box11

5Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

307Total Passes303

188Accurate Passes187

61%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

19Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1