Northampton 0–0 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

4/30/2017

League One · Round 46Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Northampton38%

×Draw28%

Gillingham34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

Northampton

1.25

Gillingham

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 99 away

1.11

creates per match

1.17

1.18

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Northampton

1.11

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Northampton

1.18

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

66%

Northampton or Gillingham

72%

Draw or Gillingham

62%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

17%

Gillingham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

71%

Northampton 2+ goals

36%

Northampton 3+ goals

13%

Gillingham 1+ goals

69%

Gillingham 2+ goals

33%

Gillingham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

53%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.11 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Northampton defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Northampton scores more

38%

level

28%

Gillingham scores more

34%

Northampton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Matthew Taylor

65'

K. Anderson← H. Boateng

75'

Brendan Moloney

Possession

Shots

Statistics

NorthamptonGillingham

Overview

52%Possession48%

4Total Shots8

7Corners7

7Fouls14

Shots

4Total Shots8

0On Target3

2Off Target4

2Blocked1

3Inside Box3

1Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3