Northampton 1–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

J. Sowerby 79'

3/4/2023

League Two · Round 35Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton49%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.03

Northampton

1.55

Crawley Town

1.03

Northampton creates 50% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 151 away

1.48

creates per match

1.17

0.89

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Crawley Town

1.17

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Crawley Town

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

75%

Northampton or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

51%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

25%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

79%

Northampton 2+ goals

46%

Northampton 3+ goals

20%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

64%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

28%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

66%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.55

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Northampton scores more

49%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

25%

Northampton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Sowerby

Northampton · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

39'

45+3'

46'

60'

67'

67'

70'

71'

72'

74'

75'

78'

L. Francillette← T. Johnson

79'

J. Sowerby

89'

W. Hondermarck← S. Hoskins

90+6'

Harvey Lintott

90+4'

T. Yengi← J. Sowerby

90+1'

M. Ogungbo← B. Mason

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonCrawley

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots9

7Corners5

9Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target1

2Off Target3

6Blocked5

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

341Total Passes312

200Accurate Passes173

59%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1