Crawley Town vs Northampton — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Crawley Town46%
Northampton28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Crawley Town creates 35% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 99 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Crawley Town ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches
Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54
Northampton attack 0.94 + Crawley Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Crawley Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Crawley Town substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Lincoln
Cardiff
Bolton
Stockport County
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield Town
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton Albion
Peterborough
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter City
Port Vale
RotherhamNorthamptonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Crawley Town host Northampton on Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 14:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Crawley Town vs Northampton
Crawley Town beat Northampton 3-0 in League One on April 26, 2025.
Goals: R. Hepburn-Murphy (39'), J. Kelly (66'), K. Doyle (88').
Crawley Town controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 6.
The match was played at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.