Crawley Town 2–3 Northampton: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Northampton

J. Balagizi 61', 4'

K. Bowie 90+2'

S. Hoskins 23', 13'

8/16/2022

League Two · Round 4Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Crawley Town38%

×Draw27%

Northampton35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.22

Crawley Town

1.27

Northampton

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 152 home / 88 away

1.31

creates per match

1.24

1.20

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.31

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.20

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

65%

Crawley Town or Northampton

73%

Draw or Northampton

62%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

17%

Northampton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

72%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

36%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

14%

Northampton 1+ goals

70%

Northampton 2+ goals

34%

Northampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

52%

Northampton (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 152 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.31 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Northampton attack 1.24 + Crawley Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crawley Town scores more

38%

level

27%

Northampton scores more

35%

Crawley Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Hoskins

Northampton · M

8.7

Match Events

4'

J. Balagizi↳ A. Nadesan

13'

S. Hoskins

23'

S. Hoskins

61'

J. Balagizi↳ A. Nadesan

63'

T. Jenks← J. Tilley

68'

D. Hylton← B. Fox

68'

R. Haynes← T. Magloire

72'

K. Bowie← L. Appéré

79'

K. Appiah← A. Nadesan

79'

H. Ransom← E. Adebowale

90+6'

Danny Hylton

90+2'

K. Bowie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyNorthampton

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots11

2Corners3

10Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots11

5On Target7

1Off Target1

2Blocked3

6Inside Box5

2Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

486Total Passes398

383Accurate Passes297

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides5