North Macedonia U19 1–1 Latvia U19: Result & Stats

North Macedonia U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Latvia U19

M. Gashtarov 76' (pen)

T. Mickēvičs 60'

10/9/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Stade Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

North Macedonia U1939%

×Draw29%

Latvia U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Macedonia U19Expected goals in this matchLatvia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.04

North Macedonia U19

1.19

Latvia U19

1.04

North Macedonia U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

0.71

creates per match

0.95

1.14

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

North Macedonia U19

0.71

Latvia U19

0.95

allows per match

North Macedonia U19

1.14

Latvia U19

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U19 ↓

Latvia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

North Macedonia U19 or draw

68%

North Macedonia U19 or Latvia U19

71%

Draw or Latvia U19

61%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

17%

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

70%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

33%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

12%

Latvia U19 1+ goals

65%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

28%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U19 at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Latvia U19 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.71 + Latvia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.19

Latvia U19 attack 0.95 + North Macedonia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

North Macedonia U19 scores more

39%

level

29%

Latvia U19 scores more

32%

North Macedonia U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "North Macedonia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

T. Mickevics

46'

A. Latifi← M. Elmas

60'

T. Mickēvičs

68'

N. Ajetovikj← N. Manojlov

68'

V. Islami← A. Ljubevski

70'

R. Klavinskis

72'

R. Bočs← R. Kļavinskis

76'

G. Krstevski← A. Velkov

76'

M. GashtarovPenalty

81'

A. Podgradja← D. Ristovski

83'

K. Mežsargs← D. Radzenieks

87'

N. Ajetovikj

87'

Ņ. Barkovskis← M. Ivulāns

North

Latvia

12

5

4

2

7

▼

Ivulāns

20

⚽

Mickēvičs

19

Strods

10

▼

Kļavinski

18

Gaļajevs

15

Anisjko

9

▼

1

6

5

3

▼

Velkov

2

▼

Ljubevski

11

▼

Elmas

10

▼

Manojlov

8

⚽

Gashtarov

4

▼

Ristovski

9

Mladenovs

7

Danev

Manager: V. Stanojković

46'▲A. Latifi←▼M. Elmas

68'▲N. Ajetovikj←▼N. Manojlov

68'▲V. Islami←▼A. Ljubevski

76'▲G. Krstevski←▼A. Velkov

81'▲A. Podgradja←▼D. Ristovski

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

19Latifi15Ajetovikj18Islami13Krstevski17Podgradja12Hadzhibulikj20Boshnakov16Sinani14Sinanov

Manager: V. Dobrecovs

72'▲R. Bočs←▼R. Kļavinskis

83'▲K. Mežsargs←▼D. Radzenieks

87'▲Ņ. Barkovskis←▼M. Ivulāns

Latvia U19 substitutes

21Bočs17Mežsargs6Barkovskis13Poļuhovičs1Auseklis14Rupeiks11Kukulis16Liepājnieks8Ohvovoriole