North Macedonia U19 1–2 Latvia U19: Result & Stats

North Macedonia U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Latvia U19

D. Mitrovski 88' (pen)

B. Samoilovs 56', 42'

3/21/2018

UEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 2Trening centar Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

North Macedonia U1930%

×Draw24%

Latvia U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Macedonia U19Expected goals in this matchLatvia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.72

North Macedonia U19

1.33

Latvia U19

1.72

Latvia U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

2.43

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

North Macedonia U19

0.67

Latvia U19

2.43

allows per match

North Macedonia U19

1.00

Latvia U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U19 ↓

Latvia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

North Macedonia U19 or draw

53%

North Macedonia U19 or Latvia U19

76%

Draw or Latvia U19

70%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

13%

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

74%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

38%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

15%

Latvia U19 1+ goals

82%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

51%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Latvia U19 away — creates 2.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.67 + Latvia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Latvia U19 attack 2.43 + North Macedonia U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

North Macedonia U19 scores more

30%

level

24%

Latvia U19 scores more

47%

Latvia U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Latvia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

B. Samoilovs

46'

E. Fazlagikj← M. Todorov

56'

B. Samoilovs

57'

K. Trapanovski← D. Churlinov

69'

B. Kolevski← J. Atanasov

69'

O. Rubenis← B. Samoilovs

87'

K. Puriņš← J. Grīnbergs

88'

D. MitrovskiPenalty

90+4'

A. Jaunzems← M. Toņiševs

North

Latvia

1

Matrevics

10

▼

2

5

14

11

⚽2

▼

8

19

4

9

21

▼

1

2

3

5

6

9

8

▼

Atanasov

10

⚽

Mitrovski

16

Ferukoski

7

▼

Churlinov

4

▼

Todorov

Manager: V. Stanojković

46'▲E. Fazlagikj←▼M. Todorov

57'▲K. Trapanovski←▼D. Churlinov

69'▲B. Kolevski←▼J. Atanasov

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

17Fazlagikj11Trapanovski19Kolevski13Antovski12Ivanov14Ristovski15Mitrev18Stojchevski20Miovski

Manager: A. Basov

69'▲O. Rubenis←▼B. Samoilovs

87'▲K. Puriņš←▼J. Grīnbergs

90+4'▲A. Jaunzems←▼M. Toņiševs

Latvia U19 substitutes

13Rubenis7Puriņš16Jaunzems3Minkevičs6Pelcis12Soloha15Savčenko23Serdcevs

UEFA U19 Championship: North Macedonia U19 1–2 Latvia U19

Latvia U19 beat North Macedonia U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on March 21, 2018.

Goals: B. Samoilovs (42', 56'), D. Mitrovski (88' pen).

The match was played at Trening centar Petar Miloševski in Skopje.

North Macedonia U19 vs Latvia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship: North Macedonia U19 1–2 Latvia U19