Latvia U19 1–1 North Macedonia U19: Result & Stats

Latvia U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

North Macedonia U19

K. Mežsargs 59'

D. Danev 76'

3/26/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Trening centar Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Latvia U1950%

×Draw24%

North Macedonia U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Latvia U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.17

Latvia U19

1.71

North Macedonia U19

1.17

Latvia U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

0.93

1.40

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Latvia U19

1.20

North Macedonia U19

0.93

allows per match

Latvia U19

1.40

North Macedonia U19

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Latvia U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Latvia U19 or draw

74%

Latvia U19 or North Macedonia U19

76%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

50%

Winning margin

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

27%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Latvia U19 1+ goals

82%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

51%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

24%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

69%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

33%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

66%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U19 attack 1.20 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.93 + Latvia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Latvia U19 scores more

50%

level

24%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

26%

Latvia U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Latvia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

M. Stojilevski

56'

M. Tihonovics

59'

K. Mežsargs

62'

M. Ivulāns← E. Evelons

64'

D. Danev← H. Canoski

64'

L. Kaba← Z. Nazifi

70'

E. Valutadatils← R. Bočs

73'

V. Purs

76'

D. Danev

78'

E. Valutadatils

90+1'

G. Djekov

Latvia

North

1

14

5

2

15

8

3

10

9

▼

Nazifi

19

Velichkov

20

▼

1

3

13

11

20

15

8

9

⚽

Mežsargs

19

Jamonts

16

▼

Evelons

21

▼

Bočs

Manager: V. Dobrecovs

62'▲M. Ivulāns←▼E. Evelons

70'▲E. Valutadatils←▼R. Bočs

Latvia U19 substitutes

7Ivulāns14Valutadatils12Auseklis5Smirnovs4Lormanis6Barkovskis10Adītājs2Rimovičs

Manager: N. Sabani

64'▲D. Danev←▼H. Canoski

64'▲L. Kaba←▼Z. Nazifi

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

11Danev7Kaba13Meljichi17Serafimov4Muhtari12Jakimov18Aliji